The Grade 2, $400,000 Risen Star Stakes Presented by Lamarque Ford is the first of 16 Road to the Derby Championship Series races offering 50 or more points to the winner, which will very likely enable that horse’s connections to choose to enter the starting gate for the Kentucky Derby Presented by Woodford Reserve in just under three months. Points are also awarded down to fifth place, particularly important to horses which are just getting started on the Derby trail this year.
Leading the 14-horse field in terms of accomplishment are a trio of stakes winners in Curly Jack, Two Phil’s, and Victory Formation, but all three drew potentially disadvantageous outside post positions in this big field. Curly Jack, who makes his first start as a 3-year-old, won the Grade 3 Iroquois Stakes in September and was runner-up behind division leader Instant Coffee in the Grade 2 Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes at the end of November. Two Phil’s won the Grade 3 Street Sense Stakes in October and finished second to Instant Coffee last month in the Grade 3 Lecomte Stakes. Victory Formation is undefeated in three races, including the Smarty Jones Stakes on New Year’s Day, in which Angel of Empire finished second. Then there’s Private Creed, who is trying dirt for the first time in the seventh start of his career but who has never been worse than third to date including the Grade 1 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf Sprint. Determinedly finished third in the Gun Runner Stakes in late December before a game neck victory on this main track four weeks ago in a highly rated race in which Tapit’s Conquest and Silver Heist finished close behind in second and third, respectively. Harlocap is another who could improve to compete at this level as he easily won a race in California last month and now moves to the barn of Steve Asmussen. Crupi might be interesting to some as he has yet to earn a win in five races, but not only did he miss by a head in his most recent race, which came following two months off, he is the only entrant in the race trained by Todd Pletcher, whose Litigate won the Sam F. Davis Stakes last weekend. Sun Thunder may improve off his fourth-place effort in the Grade 3 Southwest Stakes on Jan. 28, run on a sloppy track. Trainer Keith Desormeaux, who 10 years ago saddled Ive Struck a Nerve to victory in this race, paying $272.40 for a $2 bet, saddles last out maiden winner Single Ruler. Shaq Diesel and Quiet as Midnight round out the field.
Top win contenders:
Tapit’s Conquest has yet to run in a stakes but appears to have the most potential to improve and make his mark in the division. After starting his career last summer at Saratoga Race Course in a sprint, the colt improved markedly when trying two turns in the second start of his career last October, opening up by four lengths in the stretch and coasting home in a field of 10. Rested more than two months, Tapit’s Conquest made his 3-year-old debut four weeks ago on Jan. 1 at Fair Grounds at 1 1/16 miles. In spite of being away for a long time, Tapit’s Conquest rallied from fifth to miss by a neck at the finish line. The winner was Determinedly, who had run much more recently and who was ahead by three lengths with an eighth of a mile to run. Tapit’s Conquest should run much better in his second start off a layoff and second race as a 3-year-old, and we can expect him to take another big step forward off the career-best 98 Equibase Speed Figure earned in that race. With the exception of the 115 figure Private Creed earned on turf last year, the figures Determinedly and Tapit’s Conquest earned are among the highest dirt figures in the field. Considering Tapit’s Conquest should improve off his last effort and that the colt put in a very sharp workout — fourth best of 62 at five furlongs — coming into this race, he gets top billing to win this year’s Risen Star Stakes.
Two Phil’s is also making his second start as a 3-year-old and that could give him an edge over horses that either have not run this year or those who have run more than once this year. After a poor seventh-place effort in the Grade 1 Claiborne Breeders’ Futurity last October, also his first try around two turns, Two Phil’s proved his belongs in the division with a decisive 5 ¼-length win in the Street Sense Stakes three week later, earning a career best 93 Equibase Speed Figure. Rested almost three months, Two Phil’s returned in the Lecomte Stakes, the same race 2022 Kentucky Jockey Club winner Instant Coffee made his sophomore debut in. After rallying from fifth to get within a head of the lead at the top of the stretch, Two Phil’s was no match for Instant Coffee and ended up second, beaten 2 1/2 lengths, but more importantly was 5 1/4 lengths ahead of the third horse. Earning a new career-best 95 figure for that effort, Two Phil’s also has tremendous upside for improvement in his second start off the layoff and every right to run well enough to win.
Silver Heist has potential to post the upset in this race as he will be ignored by bettors favoring horses with stakes experience, or just more experience in general. The colt is making only the third start of his career and is the most lightly raced entrant in the field. On the other hand, he’s a son of Tapit (also the sire of Tapit’s Conquest), who has sired a high number of top 3-year-olds the past few years. He’s also one of three trained by Steve Asmussen (the other two being Harlocap and Private Creed). Silver Heist was making only the second start of his career and first start in a route last month in the race won by Determinedly and in which Tapit’s Conquest finished second, and he was only one length behind the winner. The 96 figure earned was pretty strong and logically can be improved upon in his second route and third career start. Better still he put in a :59.40 five-furlong drill in preparation for the race, which was the best of the day at the distance Feb. 6.
Determinedly won the race discussed several times previously at Fair Grounds last month leading from start to finish with a 98 speed figure that would be competitive in the Risen Star if repeated, but he has also won from off the pace as well two races before that. In between those two efforts came a third-place finish as the odds-on favorite in the Gun Runner Stakes at Fair Grounds, so it may be more difficult to predict a repeat of his last effort, particularly as jockey Luis Saez, who rode Determinedly in his last four races, gets off to ride Angel of Empire. Nevertheless, I would not argue with anyone who believes he can win.
Victory Formation has to be mentioned as win contender if for no other reason than he’s undefeated in three starts. He’s also one of three from the formidable Brad Cox barn (the other two being Tapit’s Conquest and Angel of Empire). Stretching out to two turns for the first time in the Smarty Jones Stakes to start the year, Victory Formation led every step of the way, widening to a three-length margin which could have been more as he was ridden out in the late stages. As such, the 97 figure Victory Formation earned can be improved upon. Although he led from start to finish in the Smarty Jones, this colt showed he could win from off the pace prior to that when stalking in second in the early stages and the win last time out came from the outside in a field of eight. However, the 13 post he drew in this field is a bit more problematic, so I am not sure he can repeat those efforts. It must be noted Cox saddled Mandaloun to win this race in 2021 on a very similar pattern to Victory Formation, so he can’t be ruled out as a win contender in this very deep and competitive field.
The rest of the field (with best representative Equibase Speed Figure): Angel of Empire (92), Curly Jack (91), Crupi (99), Harlocap (97), Private Creed (115 on turf), Quiet as Midnight (65), Shaq Diesel (84), Single Ruler (92), and Sun Thunder (92).
Win Contenders, in preference order:
Tapit’s Conquest
Two Phil’s
Silver Heist
Determinedly
Victory Formation
Pick 4
7-2/7-5-6
7-2/7-5-6
$1,466
Pick 5
2/(9-14)-7-2/7-5-6
2/(9-14)-7-2/7-5-6
$7,547
Pick 6
7-2/(9-14)-7-2/7-5-6
7-2/(9-14)-7-2/7-5-6
$1,120
Daily Double
5-6
5-6
$181
Superfecta
6-7-10-8
6-7-10-8
$767
Trifecta
6-7-10
6-7-10
$735
Pick 4
7-2/7-5-6
7-2/7-5-6
$1,466
Pick 5
2/(9-14)-7-2/7-5-6
2/(9-14)-7-2/7-5-6
$7,547
Pick 6
7-2/(9-14)-7-2/7-5-6
7-2/(9-14)-7-2/7-5-6
$1,120
Daily Double
5-6
5-6
$181
Superfecta
6-7-10-8
6-7-10-8
$767
Trifecta
6-7-10
6-7-10
$735
