Major race days typically offer big fields from start to finish on cards loaded with stakes races and thus present an ideal opportunity to find betting value for a strong opinion. No race day is bigger than the Kentucky Derby, so let’s shoot for the moon and try to find some massive prices on the May 5 Longines Kentucky Oaks and May 6 Kentucky Derby Presented by Woodford Reserve cards at Churchill Downs.

Friday, May 5

Race 6, Modesty Stakes Presented by Twinspires, 1:26 p.m. ET

#4 Sparkle Blue (12-1): There are a couple of big names in here in #7 Shantisara (2-1) and #6 McKulick (5-2) that will take a ton of money, but I went with Sparkle Blue making her 4-year-old debut off a long layoff after a strong 3-year-old season. Trainer Graham Motion is very good off the extended layoff and this Hard Spun filly won the Rubicon Valley View Stakes at Keeneland by 2 ½ lengths in her penultimate start of 2022 before running third by three-quarters of a length in the Grade 1 American Oaks. I think she’s poised to have a very nice season and you might not get better odds on her than in this spot.

Race 7, Eight Belles Stakes Presented by Sysco, 2:09 p.m. ET

#2 Sabra Tuff (20-1): This one is a true swing for the fences. On paper, this Cross Traffic filly is not close to fast enough to win, but I think she will appreciate cutting back in distance to a one-turn seven-eighths of a mile in her 3-year-old bow. Mostly, this is a pure pace play in that there is plenty of speed in this race and she is one of the few dedicated closers who should benefit from a potentially wicked pace. She picks up a good jockey in Tyler Gaffalione and her trainer, Dallas Stewart, has authored quite a few upsets. At the very least, she will be passing horses late to boost the payouts on trifecta and superfecta tickets

Race 11, Longines Kentucky Oaks, 5:51 p.m. ET

My selection to win the Kentucky Oaks is #6 Botanical (4-1) and I’m hoping for a better price than her odds on the morning line given she has never raced on dirt. My feeling here is the she has a terrific dirt pedigree and is the fastest filly in the race. I respect 5-2 morning-line favorite #7 Wet Paint quite a bit, but I will try to beat her with Botanical and then find a longshot to spice up my exacta and trifecta tickets.

#8 Promiseher America (30-1): I would guess quite a few bettors will dismiss her 26.50-1 upset win in the Gazelle Stakes as a fluke, but the reality is she improved quite a bit in her previous start when stretching out from sprint races to win a one-mile maiden race. The American Pharoah filly took another step forward in her stakes debut at 1 1/8 miles when she battled gamely to turn back a bid from Shidabhuti in the stretch. She finished with a final eighth of a mile in 12.46 seconds and earned new career-best speed figures across the board. There are no true standouts from a speed-figure perspective other than the aforementioned Botanical, who has not raced on dirt, so I think Promiseher America fits here and 30-1 is appealing.

Saturday, May 6

Race 6, Knicks Go Stakes Presented by L&N Federal Credit Union, 1:14 p.m. ET

#7 Three Technique (20-1): Can lightning strike twice? Probably not, but maybe … at the very least I expect last year’s 36.80-1 winner of this race to offer great value again with a strong chance to run another big race. Whether that is enough to wind up in the winner’s circle again, we’ll have to wait and see, but the pace should set up his closing rally, he’s run well at this track/distance, and he’ll be passing tiring rivals late with a chance to really spice up exacta and trifecta bets.

Talk of the Nation (Eclipse Sportswire)

Race 7, Twin Spires Turf Sprint Stakes Presented by Cohere Health, 1:56 p.m. ET

#2 Go Bears Go (12-1): This is a deep, quality field of 14 for a turf sprint but I think he fits from a class perspective as a three-time group stakes winner in Europe who finished second in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf Sprint in 2021. What really caught my eye was the trainer shift to the U.S. barn of Wesley Ward plus the pairing with Hall of Fame jockey John Velazquez, who was aboard in the Juvenile Turf Sprint. Expect him to break like a shot out of the starting gate and secure good position early with a chance to spring a nice upset.

Race 9, American Turf Stakes Presented by BMW, 3:40 p.m. ET

#4 Talk of the Nation (10-1): I will preface this by saying that I would be surprised if this Quality Road colt from the barn of Hall of Famer Shug McGaughey is 10-1 by the time the starting gates open, but with some big names among the 14 3-year-olds entered (plus two also-eligible contenders) it’s possible. In turf races, I mostly look at the final quarter-mile or three-eighth of a mile to see how fast the horse is once the sprint to the finish starts. Talk of a Nation finished his final quarter mile in just under :22.50 to win the Columbia Stakes March 11 at Tampa Bay Downs by 2 ½ lengths and improve to 2-for-2 on grass. That is lightning quick and he’s had of time to recover from a fast race. My best bet of the day.

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Race 12, Kentucky Derby Presented by Woodford Reserve, 6:57 p.m. ET

Before I get into my favorite longshot plays for this year’s Kentucky Derby, the pick on top for me is absolutely #14 Angel of Empire (8-1). He has three things I really like: push-button acceleration, improving speed figures in his last four starts (Beyer, Equibase, and Brisnet), and he finished very fast in winning the Arkansas Derby by 4 ¼ lengths. His final eighth of a mile in 12.12 seconds and final three-eighths of a mile in :36.86 have me confident he will be flying late. It’s as good as I’ve felt about a Derby pick since I had I’ll Have Another to win in 2012. Now, on to the longshots …

#7 Reincarnate (50-1): You will hear a lot about the lack on pace in this year’s Kentucky Derby and I think, for the most part, that is true and could open things up a bit for 3-year-olds like Reincarnate with tactical speed and enough early foot that they could in theory be a possible pacesetter. He’s run well against quality competition and his speed figures indicate he has a chance to spice up the exotics at a big price, although I don’t think he will be quite as high as his 50-1 morning-line odds. Still, getting 35-1 to 40-1 on a 3-year-old capable of leading a long way I find very appealing.

#1 Hit Show (30-1): I really thought things were shaping up well for Hit Show to run a big race while flying under the radar in the Kentucky Derby after he was defeated by upset winner Lord Miles in the Wood Memorial Stakes Presented by Resorts World Casino. The inside post position in a 20-horse field is, to be blunt, a disaster. The 19 racehorses to his outside all will be desperately trying to move over and save some ground after the starting gate opens and most years the entrant starting from post-position one is eliminated early from that avalanche of horses. The last Derby winner from this post position was Ferdinand in 1986 in a 16-horse field. My hope is that Hit Show will now fly even further under the radar – I’d be shocked if a single handicapper picks him – and Manny Franco hustles him out of the starting gate into a decent stalking position. I would bet he is closer to 40-1 odds when the race starts and he’s a talented horse coming off three straight quality races. Sometimes, when others zig, you have to zag.