The Grade 1, $300,000 Del Mar Oaks drew a nice field of 10 3-year-old fillies, including recent Grade 2 San Clemente Stakes winner Anisette, now undefeated in two starts since importing to the United States.
Window Shopping won the Grade 2 Summertime Oaks on dirt when last seen in June and will try to hold that dirt form in this grass race. Grade 3 Providencia Stakes winner Paris Secret attempts to return to the form shown in April following two poorer efforts, including when ninth most recently in the San Clemente, in which And Tell Me Nolies finished a nonthreatening third. Be Your Best comes in from New York and one race before last proved competitive at this level when a neck shy of winning the Grade 2 Wonder Again Stakes. Big Pond just won the Fleet Treat Stakes, a sprint on dirt, and tries tougher competition, two turns, and grass for the first time. Infinite Diamond won the Cash Run Stakes on New Year’s Day in Florida before two poorer efforts, both on dirt, and prepped for this race with a fourth-place finish on the Del Mar turf last month. Absolutely Zero won the Fasig-Tipton Futurity versus males in June of 2022 but is winless in three races since and is also trying turf and two turns for the first time. Impact Warrior and Ruby Nell both step up off allowance races in which they ran very well and may have a big impact as 3-year-old fillies can improve markedly from one race to the next.
Analysis and main contenders:
Impact Warrior was making her U.S. debut and first start following two months off on July 29 in a race at one mile on turf at Del Mar. She won her debut last August on the grass in Ireland then in her second start as a 3-year- old in May missed by a head at one mile on a left-handed course like those in North America. Shipping into the top barn of Phil D’Amato in June, the filly put in three workouts, the last of which was on turf, before that July 29 effort and she was definitely ready to run and run well. Rallying from sixth of 12 in the early stages, she finished second by three-quarters of a length at the end. As such, Impact Warrior absolutely fits with this group based on the 100 Equibase Speed Figure earned in that effort, as compared with the 99 figure Anisette earned seven days earlier winning the local prep for this race, the San Clemente Stakes. With jockey Kent Desormeaux riding her back after getting familiar with her last month, and with the prospect for improvement in her second start at the Del Mar meeting, Impact Warrior is my top choice to win this year’s Del Mar Oaks.
Anisette makes her third start since coming to the U.S. between December of last year and this past March. She’s run one more time locally as compared with Impact Warrior and that experience may give her an edge but she is very likely to go to post at lower odds based on her strong win in the San Clemente Stakes last month. In both of her local starts, Anisette rallied powerfully and from far back, first from last of 12 to win by three-quarters of a length in her U.S. debut in May then from 10th of 14 in the San Clemente before powering off by 2 1/2 lengths. Going from a 92 speed figure in her first U.S. start to 99 in her second, Anisette certainly has what it takes to win her second graded stakes on grass and deserves a lot of respect in this situation.
Infinite Diamond will most likely come under the radar of many bettors, just as she was when sent to post at 17.30-1 odds last month in an allowance race on the Del Mar turf. That was an interesting placement for this filly that had previously run in Florida. In wondering why trainer Patrick Biancone shipped the filly to California and put her on turf where she had never raced before, it appears that race, at the same 1 1/8-mile turf trip as the Del Mar Oaks, was specifically meant to get her ready for the Del Mar Oaks. Although fourth in the race one month ago, Infinite Diamond earned a decent 95 Equibase Speed Figure, which can be improved upon in her second local start. Additionally, she had some traffic trouble as her path was taken early in the stretch, but when clear, although the cause was lost, she closed willingly and was just a nose from the third-place finisher. Hall of Fame jockey Mike Smith takes over and with a better trip and having experience on the course there is potential for Infinite Diamond to run better than her high odds suggest she will.
Honorable mention goes to a trio of fillies – Be Your Best, Window Shopping, and Ruby Nell. Be Your Best ships in from New York off a ninth-place effort but in the 1 ¼-mile, Grade 1 Fasig-Tipton Belmont Oaks Invitational. She proved competitive at this distance right before that with a 95 speed figure effort, missing by a neck in the Wonder Again Stakes. If she can return to that form, she could have a say in the outcome. Window Shopping and Ruby Nell both hail from the barn of Hall of Fame trainer Richard Mandella, and both enter the race off wins. Window Shopping won the Summertime Oaks on dirt with a 91 Equibase Speed Figure when last seen in June, and two races prior to that won by 16 ½ lengths with a 97 figure that could be competitive if repeated here. Ruby Nell is a perfect 2-for-2 on grass, with a win in May with an 88 speed figure followed by a win last month on the Del Mar turf with a 94 Equibase Speed Figure on the same day Anisette won the San Clemente with a 99 figure. Making her second start following two months off, Ruby Nell has room to improve to the level needed to be a competitor in this field,
The rest of the field (with best Equibase Speed Figure): Absolutely Zero (88), And Tell Me Nolies (93), Big Pond (91) and Paris Secret (95).
Top Win Contenders:
Impact Warrior
Anisette
Infinite Diamond
Superfecta
5-9-6-4
5-9-6-4
$18
Superfecta
5-9-6-4
5-9-6-4
$18
