Cody’s Wish leads the field in the Grade 1 $1 million Whitney Stakes, having won six straight races, including five Grade 1 stakes, most recently the Grade 1 Hill 'n' Dale Metropolitan Handicap. Last year’s Big Ass Fans Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile winner, Cody’s Wish could earn an automatic berth to the 2023 Longines Breeders’ Cup Classic with a win. Five are lined up with a different opinion, that group led by Grade 2 Suburban Stakes winner Charge It. Another horse whose connections are hoping to post the upset is Giant Game, who won the Grade 3 Prairie Meadows Cornhusker Handicap at the distance of the Whitney in his most recent race. Metropolitan Handicap runner-up Zandon and third place finisher White Abarrio hope to turn the tables on Cody’s Wish, while Last Samurai may round out the field but is no slouch, having captured the Grade 3 Razorback Handicap and Grade 3 Essex Handicap in succession earlier this year.

Analysis & Contenders:

In a field of six, there is potential for a horse to control the tempo on the front end and get away with soft fractions which allow for a big finish, potentially holding on for the win in spite of the logically oncoming rush of a horse like Cody’s Wish, and that horse may be Giant Game. This 4-year-old didn’t do much after winning in the fall of 2021 in his second career start and first route, losing seven straight. However, as often happens in the spring of a horse’s 4-year-old campaign, something switched on with this colt starting two races back on May 11. He’s won both races since, on May 11 and July 11, earning a 100 Equibase Speed Figure followed by a new career-best 105 figure. What caused Giant Game to mature and become a force to be reckoned with appears to be he was allowed to roll from the start in both those recent races, his only two-turn races of the year. In the most recent of the pair, Giant Game controlled the pace in the Cornhusker Handicap four weeks ago and handled the field of 10 with relative ease. That was his first ever try at the nine-furlong distance of the Whitney. With a jockey change to Luis Saez, who can be appropriately aggressive in the early stages, it is very likely Giant Game will have the lead shortly after the start. With no other horse in the field having shown a liking for leading early, Saez and Giant Game could get into a steady rhythm, and not only can a lone front running horse like this colt get very brave on the front end, as a 4-year-old with room to improve we might see a big improvement in his speed figure, good enough to post the upset and win.

Cody’s Wish still may be very tough to beat even if the lone front running trip of Giant Game materializes, as he’s an “ALPHA” horse who just does whatever it takes to win, and often in dominant fashion. Since returning from six months off following his career-best effort winning the Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile last fall with a career-best 116 figure, Cody’s Wish has been more dominant. In the Churchill Downs Stakes presented by Ford on May 6, Cody’s Wish blew past six horses on the far turn to win by nearly five lengths with a 110 figure as if he had never been away. Then on June 10 in the Metropolitan Handicap, Cody’s Wish swept from eighth of nine to the lead while going five paths wide and propelled himself to be in front by four lengths when the field hit the stretch, easily coasting home to victory. That effort equaled his Breeders’ Cup figure of 116 and in his third start of the year even better may be forthcoming. Although bred to handle this nine-furlong trip with as much ease as the mile of the Metropolitan, it is important to note that Cody’s Wish has most of his work around one turn, and has never won at a distance past one mile. Granted, Hall-of-Fame trainer Bill Mott has had no reason to run the horse longer distances because there have been enough graded stakes he could run in, but just the same this two-turn, mile and one-eighth trip, is not yet proven to be one he is as good at.

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If he can repeat his best effort of 2023, Last Samurai may have a shot to post the upset win, or at least run better than his odds suggest he will. That effort came in the Razorback Handicap in February where Last Samurai earned a career-best 119 figure – higher than the pair of 116 figures likely prohibitive betting favorite Cody’s Wish earned in the Metropolitan Handicap and Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile. Last Samurai followed up his Razorback victory winning the Essex Handicap in March with a 111 figure, before a head defeat in the Oaklawn Handicap at the distance of the Whitney. Since then, Last Samurai finished fourth on two occasions, but it must be noted his Razorback win came on the heels of a fourth-place effort as well. Hall of Fame trainer D. Wayne Lukas has won the Whitney twice.  In 1986 he won with the filly Lady’s Secret and in 1990 with Criminal Type, and it just might be fitting to win it again after three decades have passed since that last win.

The three above are my top three win contenders, but I would not argue with anyone considering any of the remaining trio as contenders. Zandon finished second in the Metropolitan Handicap with a career-best 110 figure, but was no match whatsoever for Cody’s Wish. Similarly, White Abarrio was a head behind Zandon when third, but it must be noted he did stumble at the start. That effort earned the same 110 figure, and his best came when third and beaten a half-length last December in the Cigar Mile Handicap presented by NYRA Bets, but it must be noted both those efforts came at a mile around one turn, not the two-turn nine furlongs trip of the Whitney. Charge It ran the fastest race if his career 13 months ago when winning the Dwyer Stakes by 23 lengths with a 114 figure, but that was also a one-turn mile. He cuts back in distance following a win at a mile and one-quarter in the Suburban Stakes with a 108 figure, following a fourth-place finish in the Metropolitan Handicap behind Cody’s Wish, Zandon and White Abarrio.

Win Contenders, in preference order:

Giant Game

Cody’s Wish

Last Samurai