It might not be a graded stakes, but Sunday’s running of the $500,000 Woodbine Oaks Presented by Budweiser at Woodbine is an event racing fans and bettors won’t want to miss.

Held over 1 1/8 miles on Tapeta, the Woodbine Oaks serves as the first leg of Canada’s “Triple Tiara,” a Triple Crown-type series for Canadian-bred 3-year-old fillies. But just as often, the Woodbine Oaks serves as a steppingstone for talented fillies to prepare for a showdown against male rivals in the $1 million King’s Plate Stakes at Woodbine, a race formerly known as the Queen’s Plate.

Indeed, the last dozen years have seen Inglorious (2011), Lexie Lou (2014), Holy Helena (2017), and Moira (2022) sweep both races, while Wonder Gadot (2018) parlayed a runner-up finish in the Woodbine Oaks into victory in the Queen’s Plate. Thus, history suggests there’s a strong chance one of the 14 fillies entered in the 2023 Woodbine Oaks will prove talented enough to conquer males when the King’s Plate is contested on Aug. 20.

There are plenty of promising fillies in the Woodbine Oaks field, but the most likely winner appears to be #11 Ticker Tape Home (5-2). The beautifully-bred daughter of Medaglia d’Oro was produced by the War Front mare Journey Home, winner of the Grade 3 Jimmy Durante Stakes on turf at Del Mar.

Ticker Tape Home has won on turf, and she’s also tried dirt, but it’s clear racing on Tapeta is her strong suit. Her first start over the surface came against males in the seven-furlong Display Stakes at Woodbine last fall, in which Ticker Tape Home set the pace before battling on to finish second by half a length.

Ticker Tape Home recently returned to the Woodbine Tapeta for the Fury Stakes, a seven-furlong sprint for Canadian-bred 3-year-old fillies. The result was impressive, as Ticker Tape Home led every step of the way to trounce #3 Elysian Field (12-1) and #14 Me and My Shadow (6-1) by four lengths, earning a career-best 93 Brisnet Speed rating.

None of the other Woodbine Oaks entrants have earned a Brisnet Speed rating higher than 88, so Ticker Tape Home comes in as the fastest filly on paper. She set a quick pace in the Fury, and her front-running speed should lend her a tactical advantage in Sunday’s large field, helping her stay out of trouble. The 1 1/8-mile distance is a possible question mark since Ticker Tape Home has faltered in her three starts running farther than seven furlongs, but one was on turf in her second start last summer, one was the Suncoast Stakes on dirt, and the last was the Grade 3 Florida Oaks on turf. Stretching her speed on Tapeta while facing fellow Canadian-bred fillies should be less of an obstacle.

Ticker Tape Home training at Woodbine. (Michael Burns/Woodbine Photo)

Ticker Tape Home’s human connections cement her status as the filly to beat. She’ll be ridden by hot jockey Patrick Husbands and Hall of Fame trainer Mark Casse, who have teamed up to win the Woodbine Oaks three times with Kimchi (2006), Sealy Hill (2007), and the above-mentioned Lexie Lou. For good measure, Husbands also rode Curlin’s Voyage to victory in 2020.

So how should we bet the Woodbine Oaks? Thanks to the large field size, Ticker Tape Home figures to offer a decent price in the win pool, so if you’re playing on a small budget, you should have every chance to catch a nice payoff by betting Ticker Tape Home to win.

But if you have a bit more capital to spend, why not invest in an exacta, which offers the potential for larger payoffs? The exacta requires selecting the top two finishers in the correct order, so if we key Ticker Tape Home on top, we’ll have to find one or more fillies to use for second place.

One obvious contender is #2 Big Brass Bed (7-2), a daughter of Grade 1 Kentucky Derby winner Nyquist conditioned by four-time Eclipse Award-winning trainer Chad Brown. Since 2018, Brown has saddled two horses over the Woodbine Tapeta, recording one win and one third. The victory came via Turf King in the Grade 3 Marine Stakes for 3-year-olds earlier this month, while the third-place finish came courtesy of Sahlabiya in the 2022 Woodbine Oaks.

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Sahlabiya entered the Woodbine Oaks without a single victory to her credit, having placed in a pair of turf maiden special weights at Belmont Park to start her career. Big Brass Bed enters with a more accomplished record, having prevailed by 2 ¾ lengths in a 1 1/16-mile maiden special weight at Monmouth Park. The runner-up, La Pachanga, came right back to win a similar race at Monmouth, flattering Big Brass Bed’s form.

Big Brass Bed followed up with a rallying fourth-place finish in a $62,500 allowance optional claimer racing 1 1/16 miles over the Belmont turf course. Switching to Tapeta and tackling a field restricted to Canadian-bred fillies might be all Big Brass Bed needs to vie for a top-two finish.

The other filly we’ll use in the exacta is #10 Wickenheiser (8-1). She ran fourth in the Grade 1 Johnnie Walker Natalma Stakes over the Woodbine turf course last year and recently kicked off 2023 with a rallying runner-up finish in a $50,000 allowance optional claimer racing 1 1/16 miles on Woodbine’s Tapeta. Wickenheiser is eligible to improve in her second start of the season, and it’s worth noting she’s trained by Kevin Attard, who has won the last two editions of the Woodbine Oaks.

Wagering Strategy on a $10 Budget

$10 to win on #11 Ticker Tape Home

What to say at the betting window: Woodbine, 10th race, $10 to win on #11 Ticker Tape Home

Wagering Strategy on a $30 Budget

$18 to win on #11 Ticker Tape Home

What to say at the betting window: Woodbine, 10th race, $18 to win on #11 Ticker Tape Home

$6 exacta: 11 with 2,10 ($12)

What to say at the betting window: Woodbine, 10th race, $6 exacta 11 with 2,10

Good luck, and enjoy the race!