
Preakness Quick Sheet: Get to Know the 2021 Preakness Horses
One-mile races on the grass are, in my opinion, the best races in the sport of Thoroughbred racing for betting and pure enjoyment. It is a distance and surface that draws sprinters stretching out, true milers, and more stamina-oriented racehorses cutting back in distance and often seeing a completely different race shape.
These one-mile grass races are a true test of ability and class, and over the years the Breeders’ Cup Mile has often produced a winner almost as notable, if not more so, than the Classic victor.
Mile winners like Goldikova, Wise Dan, and Tepin brought enough star power to headline their own racecard and shined on the brightest stage.
The 2020 FanDuel Breeders’ Cup Mile Presented by PDJF figures to follow suit as a terrific race that could produce the fourth repeat winner in the last 20 years as Uni attempts to become the sixth horse to win the Mile twice since its inception in 1984.
The Mile typically draws an exceptional field and this year’s event should boast a depth of quality runners that equals and/or exceeds almost all of the races at the World Championships. There are some significant trends to consider when looking for a winner, so let’s dig into the last 20 years of Breeders’ Cup Miles (2000-2019) and build the profile on a winner.
When it Comes to Speed: Better Late Than Early
In most races on the Breeders’ Cup card, you’ll be looking to identify racehorses with an advantage as it pertains to tactical speed. Horses who can set, press, or stalk the pace depending upon race shape are especially dangerous in dirt races, and they can also parlay that into a big advantage in the Juvenile Turf races and Turf Sprint as well. But in the Mile, deep closers with explosive finishing speed have dominated.
Class is Key
Strong recent form is almost always the most important element to handicapping races, especially stakes. It makes sense – horses who have been running well typically continue to do so, while horses come off a bad race or a string of bad races are far more unpredictable. While Mile winners over the last 20 years have been very good, winning 51 of 99 races (51.5%) during the calendar year BEFORE the Breeders’ Cup, proven class seems to be a better indicator than impeccable form.
Any chance for an upset?
When looking at this race, keep in mind there were a number of superstars who prevailed as the heavy favorite. While the Breeders’ Cup Mile has been won seven times in the last 20 years by the post-time favorite, this is a race that often produces a longshot winner if you know where to look.
Anything else of note?
There is so much to dissect with the Mile, which is why it is probably my favorite race of the year, so let’s dig into some other fun nuggets.
Which 2020 Contenders Fit the Profile?
Unlike the Longines Classic and TVG Juvenile Presented by Thoroughbred Aftercare Alliance and more like the Breeders’ Cup Sprint – all of which I did a similar race profile looking at the last 20 years – I think the Mile is a race where you can really build a profile of what the winner should look like.
A quick glance at the past performances for this field reveals an unusually deep, talented group in the U.S., plus a number of intriguing European invaders headlined by Two Thousand Guineas winner Kameko and Irish Two Thousand Guineas winner Siskin. There is not an obvious standout but there really are a ton of quality milers this year. I don’t think it’s a stretch to say any one of maybe 10 or 11 horses could legitimately win. Let’s see which of this year’s contenders fit the mold of a Mile winner and which ones might have a big chance at a big price.
Starting with the U.S.-based hopefuls, Uni is seeking a repeat in the Mile which has proven a significant challenge over the past 20 years with only a 33% success rate. She does have quite a few historical positives going for her as she was bred outside the U.S., she’s a closer with explosive finishing kick, comes out of a Grade 1 win in the First Lady Stakes Presented by UK HealthCare on the Keeneland turf in which she was a bit closer to the pace than usual, and is proven capable of the 120ish Equibase Speed Figure it most likely will take to win.
Uni’s Chad Brown-trained stablemate Raging Bull also is a multiple Grade 1 winner bred outside U.S who enters off a solid second at Keeneland in Grade 1 Shadwell Turf Mile Oct. 3. He is winless in his last three at Keeneland and has a habit of leaving too much ground to make up late. He might be a better play to round out the trifecta unless there is a blistering early pace, which is a possibility.
A Brazilian-bred multiple Group 1 winner in Argentina, Ivar turned heads with a powerful victory from off the pace in the Shadwell Turf Mile. According to Trakus data, Ivar completed the final quarter-mile in an ultra-swift 22.39 seconds to rally from seventh of nine to first by a length. He won earlier this year in the U.S. while setting the pace, so Ivar has some versatility in his arsenal and he’s fast enough to win with a career-best 119 Equibase Speed Figure on the turf course that will host the Mile.
Factor This has won five of his last six and according to Beyer Speed Figures the multiple Grade 2 winner is the fastest horse in the race. Combined with that consistency, Factor This probably will be a somewhat popular pick, however, he is MUCH better when setting pace or at least pressing, and I expect he’ll have company up front from elite milers Halladay and Newspaperofrecord, which could compromise the chances of all three. I’m looking elsewhere for a winner, but Factor This is a serious threat to finish in the top three.
Newspaperofrecord is another hopeful from the barn of Chad Brown. The Irish-bred 4-year-old filly is a multiple Grade 1 winner, including the 2018 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf. But running style is a significant negative here as five of her six wins were wire-to-wire victories and she faded late in First Lady despite a fairly easy pace after facing competition up front. I’ll probably play against Newspaperofrecord, but keep her in mind in the case of rain and softer ground that would boost her chances.
Another possible female contender is Beau Recall, an Irish-bred 6-year-old mare who will be making her 31st start in the Mile. She is a multiple Grade 2 winner and a closer, but I think she might be in a little too deep against this quality of competition, although she ran well when second to Uni at this course and distance in the First Lady.
One of my favorite longshots for Breeders’ Cup weekend is Digital Age, an Irish-bred Invincible Spirit colt who has taken a big step forward as a 4-year-old as evidenced by his explosive late surge to win Grade 1 Old Forester Bourbon Turf Classic Stakes Sept. 5 at Churchill Downs for Chad Brown. Digital Age was always well-regarded and has finished very well in his last two races. One mile might be a little short for him, but he won his first two career races at this distance, and in his fourth start of 2020 could be primed big effort. Brown has been complimentary when discussing Digital Age, so I’m hoping he doesn’t become a “buzz” horse thereby depressing his odds.
I’m a big fan of Grade 1 Fourstardave Handicap winner Halladay, but not so much in this spot. Like a few others I mentioned, he is a need-the-lead type who has been out since that Aug. 22 victory at Saratoga, and this is a tall order off 11 weeks rest.
Starship Jubilee is a superb multiple Grade 1-winning 7-year-old filly coming off a career-defining victory over males in the Ricoh Woodbine Mile. While she faced a strong field in the Woodbine Mile, I still think this is a fairly big step up in competition. Her first preference is the Maker’s Mark Filly and Mare Turf, and I believe that is a better spot for her.
A Group 1 winner in his native England, Without Parole has three Grade 1 placings in the U.S., including a third in last year’s TVG Mile, but he has not been able to get over hump in the states as he’s winless in six starts. The price will be right on this stalker-closer, but I view others as better finishers from the expected group that will be rallying from off the pace.
Moving onto the probable European invaders, I found this to be a really intriguing group.
I'm probably going to come out of this looking like a fool, but I think Siskin is a little bit overrated and I look forward to playing against him in the 2020 Breeders’ Cup Mile. The Irish Two Thousand Guineas winner enters the Mile off disappointing starts in his last two (third and fourth in Group 1 races) after opening his career with five straight wins. He’s had some starting gate trouble in the two recent races, but I’m more concerned that maybe his 2-year-old form was elite but his peers have caught up to him. A European classic winner from a powerful Juddmonte Farms family passes the class test, but I worry that this looks like a late addition to the schedule after Juddmonte announced he would be retired at season’s end. I prefer others.
I'm a big fan of English Two Thousand Guineas winner Kameko, who enters off a nice Group 2 win. Two of his three defeats this season came at 1 ½ miles and 1 5/16 miles, which I hope improves his odds because I think he's best at one mile. In his other defeat, he was hemmed in along the rail for much of final quarter-mile of the Group 1 Qatar Sussex Stakes and really had no chance because of the brutal trip. That race was better than it looked and I think his Sept. 25 win in the Group 2 Shadwell Joel Stakes at one mile is more in line with what to expect at the Breeders’ Cup. He enough speed to tuck in behind the early leaders or drop back to mid-pack depending upon pace, and I think he fires big at Keeneland.
There are some positives and negatives when it comes to Circus Maximus, an Irish-bred 4-year-old multiple Group 1 winner who has finished in the top three in 10 of 16 career races and is a true miler in every sense of the word. Fourth in last year’s Mile, Circus Maximus had an excuse in his last race with soft turf, but has really has not been very good of late. He’s a bounce-back candidate worth watching on tote board, but I would absolutely demand value and prefer him underneath.
The last two European invaders I’ll touch on are sprinters stretching out in distance, One Master and Safe Voyage, which is not an angle that has been especially productive in this race. One Master was bred in England by Lael Stables of Barbaro fame and the 6-year-old mare ran fifth in the Breeders’ Cup Mile in 2018. She’s run seven times in 2020 with a Group 1 win in France and five top-three finishes. I prefer Safe Voyage slightly and the Irish-bred multiple Group 2 winner has been very good this year in his 7-year-old campaign, especially his last five races with three stakes wins and a third on heavy ground. He’s won a pair of Group 2 races and most recently finished third by a neck to One Master in the Qatar Prix de la Foret on heavy turf. He’s fast enough to stalk and was ultra-game in victory in Group 2 Boomerang Mile Sept. 12 at Leopardstown. I’m not a huge fan of European sprinters stretching out in the Breeders’ Cup Mile, but I like what I see from Safe Voyage and I expect to get great value.
As you can see, there looks to be a ton of quality lining up for the 2020 Breeders’ Cup Mile and it could be the best betting race on the card. I plan to center my bets around Kameko and Digital Age and also use Safe Voyage heavily, especially underneath. I’ll plan to bet against the speed horses and against Siskin on top and in multi-race wagers.