The Belmont Stakes Presented by NYRA Bets might be the highlight of the spectacular June 8 racecard at Belmont Park, but the Grade 1, $1.2 million Runhappy Metropolitan Handicap could arguably steal the show.

The prestigious one-mile race is expected to attract a fantastic field of accomplished older horses, and sorting through the contenders to find the winner might be a task easier said than done. Fortunately, history can lend us a helping hand. By examining the recent results of the “Met Mile,” we can identify trends and guidelines to determine which horses are likely (or unlikely) to reach the winner’s circle.

Let’s sort through the data and see what we come up with. …

Any Running Style Can Win

No particular running style boasts a clear advantage in the Met Mile. In the last 10 years, we’ve seen three gate-to-wire winners, two wins for pressers, one win by a stalker, two wins for mid-pack closers, and two wins for deep closers. Since the opening quarter-mile fractions are typically modest (ranging from :22.40 to :23.20 over the last decade), it’s the half-mile fraction that typically determines the outcome of the race. When a testing pace is sustained (generating a half-mile in less than :45 seconds), closers tend to have an advantage.

Favorites Are Tough to Beat

Over the last decade, the betting favorite has prevailed seven times in the Met Mile, a terrific 70 percent strike rate. Furthermore, no favorite has finished worse than third during that timeframe, and the three “upset” winners started at 3.40-1, 4.80-1, and 7.10-1. In short, this isn’t a race for playing longshots on top – short-priced contenders typically get the job done.

Honor Code in 2015. (Eclipse Sportswire)

Quality Counts

Every Met Mile winner since 1984 had won a graded stakes race prior to their success in the Metropolitan, with many (including five of the last 10) recording prior wins at the Grade 1 level. This is one of the toughest and most competitive races in the country – it’s not a race up-and-comers. You have to be proven at a high level to contend for victory in the Met Mile.

Route Runners Usually Defeat Sprinters

Horses with strong form running longer than a mile tend to defeat sprinters over the middle distance of the Met Mile. Classic winners Shackleford (winner of the 2011 Preakness Stakes) and Palace Malice (victorious in the 2013 Belmont Stakes) are two obvious examples, but Quality Road, Tizway, Honor Code, Frosted, and Mor Spirit are other recent Met Mile winners who had previously demonstrated high-class form running longer distances.

On a related note, eight of the last 10 Met Mile winners ran one mile or farther in their final prep run (Sahara Sky and Shackleford being the exceptions), and over the last decade, Sahara Sky has been the only tried-and-true sprinter to win the Met Mile.

Click image to purchase shirt.

Out-of-State Shippers Frequently Win

Prepping in New York is hardly a prerequisite for winning the Met Mile. Over the last 10 years, Met Mile winners have prepped for the race at Belmont Park (New York), Gulfstream Park (Florida), Charles Town (West Virginia), Churchill Downs (Kentucky), Aqueduct (New York), Meydan (Dubai), and Lone Star Park (Texas). In fact, Lone Star Park has produced the last two Met Mile winners.

Conclusions

A deep and competitive field is expected to contest the 2019 Metropolitan Handicap, led by the Grade 1 winners McKinzie, Thunder Snow, Mitole, Firenze Fire, Promises Fulfilled, and Pavel. It’s such a tremendous race that it might even upstage the Belmont Stakes in terms of excitement.

Following the guidelines of history, it seems safe to eliminate the sprinters Mitole and Promises Fulfilled from win consideration. Firenze Fire has also been sprinting as of late, but he’s 3-for-3 at Belmont Park with two wins going a mile, so it might be unwise to dismiss him completely. Pavel fits the distance profile as a Grade 1-winning route runner, but his poor recent form will make him a longshot in the Met Mile, and history suggests a lower-priced, in-form runner might be a better play.

That leaves us with McKinzie and Thunder Snow as the main contenders. Thunder Snow is a two-time winner of the Grade 1 Dubai World Cup and certainly rates as the most accomplished horse in the field, but you can argue a mile might be a little short of his best distance, and he hasn’t run since the end of March.

In contrast, a mile seems perfect for McKinzie, who has won Grade 1 races at both longer and shorter distances. He also has a the advantage of a recent run, having cruised to a powerful victory in the Grade 2, 1 1/16-mile  Alysheba Stakes Presented by Sentient Jet at Churchill Downs on May 3. If history is any indication, McKinzie is the horse to beat in the Met Mile.

Good luck, and enjoy the race!