Prep season for the 151^st Kentucky Derby Presented by Woodford Reserve is well underway, and we’re now at the point where there’s an important prep race held nearly every weekend offering qualifying points to top finishers for a spot in the first leg of the Triple Crown May 3 at Churchill Downs.

One of the most intellectually stimulating and potentially rewarding aspects of following up-and-coming Derby contenders is backing your opinion with a future wager, and there are two ways to do it: in Churchill Downs’ fourth parimutuel pool held this weekend and making a fixed-odds bet via Caesars Sportsbook in Las Vegas.

Churchill’s fourth of six parimutuel pools starts Friday, Feb. 14 at noon ET and ends Sunday, Jan. 16 at 6 p.m. ET. Thirty-nine individual horses are offered plus an “all other 3-year-olds” bet that opens at 9-2 odds. One Kentucky Derby points race will be held while Churchill Downs’ pool is open: the Fasig-Tipton Risen Star Stakes Saturday, Feb. 15 at Fair Grounds.

Caesars continues to add horses to their fixed-odds book, but the catch is wagers can only be placed in Nevada, in person or through their geo-restricted app. If you’re traveling there this winter and spring or know someone who is, get your bets in!

Caesars Sportsbook Kentucky Derby Leaderboard (Feb. 9)

1. Barnes (10-1)

2. Citizen Bull (10-1)

3. Sandman (15-1)

4. Disco Time (18-1)

4. East Avenue (18-1)

4. Sovereignty (18-1)

Individual Favorites in Churchill Downs’ Fourth Kentucky Derby Pool (opening Feb. 14)

1. Citizen Bull (6-1)

2. Barnes (8-1)

3. East Avenue (15-1)

4. Burnham Square (20-1)

4. Captain Cook (20-1)

4. Journalism (20-1)

4. Rodriguez (20-1)

4. Sovereignty (20-1)

Updates and insights:

Burnham Square (Ryan Thompson/Coglianese Photo)

There have been five Kentucky Derby qualifying prep races held since the third Churchill Downs parimutuel pool closed, and the betting action at Caesars plus opening odds in Churchill’s upcoming pool reflect some strong recent performances. Burnham Square and Captain Cook are both listed at 20-1 odds in Churchill’s fourth pool and are getting odds of 22-1 and 40-1, respectively, in Caesars’ latest book. Burnham Square won the Holy Bull Stakes with an impressive stretch rally and Captain Cook dominated the Withers Stakes, both on Feb. 1. These two look like legit Derby contenders, and although Captain Cook earned a higher speed figure in his win (which came at 1 1/8 miles), I think Burnham Square has more potential to be a factor in the run for the roses.

Citizen Bull, 2024’s champion 2-year-old male, also impressed in his 3-year-old debut, winning the Robert B. Lewis Stakes for trainer Bob Baffert while leading from start to finish. He’s still an underlay in both Churchill’s pool (6-1) and at Caesars (10-1), as is stablemate Barnes (8-1 Churchill, 10-1 Caesars). We should know in a couple of weeks where Barnes fits in the Derby picture as he’s scheduled to make his two-turn debut in either the Rebel Stakes Feb. 22 or the DK Horse San Felipe Stakes March 1.

The 1-2 finishers of the Jan. 25 Southwest Stakes, Speed King and Sandman, are opening at odds of 30-1 and 40-1 in Churchill’s pool and are getting 33-1 odds and 15-1 odds, respectively, in Caesars’ book. Right now, Sandman is actually the third listed Derby contender at Caesars, which is dubious and the result of widespread bandwagon-jumping from futures bettors after he recovered from a near-disastrous start in the Southwest to close like a freight train through the Oaklawn Park stretch and secure runner-up honors behind pacesetting winner Speed King. There’s no doubt Sandman aced the “eye test” as a Derby prospect in the Southwest as he appears to crave more distance and is certainly bred for it. Sandman, Speed King, and Barnes could all meet in Oaklawn’s Rebel on Feb. 22, which is sure to draw a big field competing for slices of a $1.25 million purse.

A pair of new shooters:

Sorcerer's Silver (Lauren King/Coglianese Photo)

A smashing 8 ¼-length debut win Feb. 1 at Gulfstream Park was enough to secure Sorcerer’s Silver an individual listing in Churchill Downs’ fourth parimutuel pool at 80-1 odds. The Good Magic colt shook off early pace pressure in his seven-furlong unveiling and spurted clear in the stretch to win going away. He’s trained by Louisville native Dale Romans, who hasn’t had a live Derby contender in some time. Although it would be great to see Romans back at his home track on May 3, there’s a big “caution” light flashing next to this runner, and that concerns his pedigree. While Good Magic already has a Kentucky Derby winner among his progeny in Mage, Sorcerer’s Silver’s dam’s (mother’s) side of the family is heavily sprint-oriented. His dam, Money Or Love, is by the sprinter J Be K, and she won a stakes at seven furlongs and never raced farther than 1 1/16 miles. Through that bloodline, he’s also a close relative to World of Trouble and Bucchero, two of the best sprinters in recent years who together earned more than $2.2 million. This colt has enticing potential, but I’d be cautious to back him as a Derby horse. He’s not listed on Caesars’ Feb. 9 sheet.

Sunday’s Sunland Park Derby in New Mexico offers 42 Kentucky Derby qualifying points to its top five finishers, but it has a post time of 6:17 p.m. ET and therefore will go off after Churchill’s fourth parimutuel pool closes. The headliner is Bob Baffert shipper Getaway Car, who has matched up against several top-ranked California-based horses, including Citizen Bull three times, and is listed at 80-1 odds in Churchill’s upcoming pool and at 30-1 on Caesars’ book.

In my opinion, however, the most intriguing Sunland Derby contender is D. Wayne Lukas-trained Caldera, who finished sixth and then second in his two 2024 starts last fall and came back much improved in his 3-year-old debut Jan. 17 at Oaklawn Park to win a 1 1/16-mile maiden race by 5 ½ lengths. This colt added blinkers in that start, and galloped on the lead to set a moderate pace while under a strong hold by Rafael Bejarano through the backstretch. He drew clear of the field at the top of the homestretch after his rider loosened the reins and won easily while still showing greenness by changing leads as he neared the finish. I expect more improvement in his second 2025 start, and his pedigree is encouraging as he’s a son of Woodward Stakes and Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile winner Liam’s Map and from a female family highlighted by 2022 Horse of the Year Flightline. Caldera is not offered in Churchill’s pool this weekend, but is listed at a juicy 125-1 odds on Caesars’ sheet.