The field for the Grade 2 $175,000 HPIbet Autumn Stakes features five horses coming off wins and six stakes winners and will be one of the featured races this Saturday at Woodbine.

Leading the field in career earnings is Paramount Prince, winner of the Grade 3 Dominion Day Stakes and Grade 2 Seagram Cup Stakes back-to-back this summer before a fifth-place finish in the Durham Cup Stakes. That race was won by Dresden Row, who then won the Grade 3 Ontario Derby last month. Bail Us Out was just a half-length behind Dresden Row in the Ontario Derby and can improve, as can Durham Cup third place finisher Stanley House. Artie’s Storm won the 2023 Durham Cup and enters the race following a strong win in a sprint prep following 11 months off. Tosen Wish won a prep race last month on turf in his second start since importing to the U.S. and can improve. Forever Souper has won three straight stakes races in a row including the Presque Isle Mile Stakes and goes for his 10^th career win in his 19^th career start. Never Surprised enters the race off a win in an allowance race but proved he belongs in top company when second in the Grade 1 2022 Pegasus World Cup Turf Invitational Stakes. War Bomber has finished second or third in four straight stakes, all at shorter distances, but does possess a win at this 1 1/8-mile trip. Lac Macaza won the Niagara Stakes on turf in September and may add depth to the field.  Wicked Django and Sir London both earned their wins this year in allowance company and appear a bit overmatched at this Grade 2 stakes level.

Top Contenders:

Artie's Storm wins at Woodbine. (Michael Burns/Woodbine.)

Artie’s Storm appears to be the right horse at the right time to win this year’s Autumn Stakes. He returned off an 11-month layoff almost four weeks ago, likely with this race in mind, and ran fantastically well. That was a six-furlong sprint and considering his last 10 races prior to that were routes it appears he is all set for his best effort, which is good enough to win. This is because last October Artie’s Storm won the Durham Cup Stakes at the slightly shorter distance of 1 1/16 miles with a strong 109 Equibase Speed Figure. That wasn’t his best effort ever, as he led late and settled for second in the 2022 Durham Cup with a 115 figure. In the prep race last month, Artie’s Storm earned a 109 figure which he is highly likely to improve upon second off the long layoff. Jockey David Moran was aboard for the prep win as well as for the near miss in the fall of 2022 in the Durham Cup and in the Seagram Cup Stakes prior to that. Particularly with Paramount Prince likely to set a strong early pace, Artie’s Storm looks poised to make a strong late run good enough to win this race.

Never Surprised won four of 16 races through this past May for top trainer Todd Pletcher but then transferred to the barn of Kevin Attard. This past July, when racing in his first two-turn race since changing trainers, Never Surprised ran one of the best races of his career when leading from the start before settling for second, earning a 103 figure. Back in 2022 in the Pegasus World Cup Turf Invitational at the same distance of the Autumn Stakes, Never Surprised earned a career-best 112 figure when leading until just before the eighth pole then settling for second. Now stretching back out to the distance of his best effort, the biggest question may be how Never Surprised may run on all-weather for the first time. That question was answered in a sizzling recent half-mile workout where he ran 46.4 seconds and the fastest workout among 67 on the day at the distance.

Tosen Wish ran 13 times in his native Ireland before importing to North America between May and August of this year. In his first start for Mark Casse in September, Tosen Wish didn’t run much at all when eighth of 10. However, he improved markedly in his next race, on October 12 at Woodbine, when rallying from last of eight to win by a neck with a big late rush. That effort earned a 104 figure which he is expected to improve upon in his third start since coming to North America. Although both starts for Casse were on grass, there’s no doubt Tosen Wish can run as well or better on all-weather as he’s never been worse than second in four starts on the surface, all in Ireland, including a 104 speed figure effort last summer. With jockey Sahin Civaci riding back after being in the saddle for the first time last month, Tosen Wish may go a bit unnoticed by bettors given his lack of stakes races in North America and has a shot to run well at high odds.

Never Surprised. (Michael Burns/Woodbine)

Four others deserve honorable mention. Paramount Prince, winner of the 2023 King’s Plate Stakes, likes to go to the front and has been very tough when allowed an easy lead, recording six wins from 13 starts. His best effort earned a 108 figure when winning the Seagram Cup Stakes in July at 1 1/16 miles. However, at this distance he only earned a 100 speed figure winning the Dominion Day Stakes in June and in his most recent race, even when on an easy early lead, he faded badly to fifth in the Durham Cup Stakes. Dresden Row and Bail Us Out finished first and second, respectively, in the Ontario Derby last month, each earning 103 figures. That race was restricted to 3-year-olds only so both are facing tougher foes here as most of these are older horses. However, Dresden Row won the Durham Cup Stakes prior to that and versus older competition with a 110 figure. However, Dresden Row could be disadvantaged by an extreme outside post which might cause him to lose ground on the first turn or expend too much energy in the early stages to get a forward position and avoid losing ground, particularly as he’s raced no farther back than third after a half a mile in all his two-turn races. Similarly, Forever Souper gets the farthest outside post in the gate, so although he’s won three stakes in a row, the best with a 107 speed figure, he may also be at a disadvantage as he has the same running style as Dresden Row.

Perhaps not a contender to win, Stanley House is a horse to consider for second and third on exacta and trifecta tickets played. He doesn’t have a lot of late kick, having run evenly in the last eighth of a mile in his last four races. Just the same, he earned 106 and 107 figures in his last two when third behind Dresden Row in the Durham Cup and when second behind Lac Macaza in the Niagara Stakes. Prior to that, Stanley House finished second twice in a row behind Paramount Prince.

The rest of the field, with their best Equibase Speed Figures in a similar race, is Lac Macaza (109), Sir London (105), War Bomber (106) and Wicked Django (102)

Win Contenders, in preference order:

Artie’s Storm

Never Surprised

Tosen Wish