The Grade 1, $7 million Longines Breeders’ Cup Classic brings together a full field of 14 plus one also eligible to Del Mar on Nov. 2, and includes 11 horses with Grade 1 or Group 1 stakes wins in their careers.
City of Troy, a Kentucky bred son of undefeated 2018 Triple Crown winner Justify, has won six of seven races in his career, all on turf and all in England or Ireland. He most recently won the Group 1 Juddmonte International Stakes in a field of 13. Forever Young is remembered for his stirring stretch battle in this year’s Kentucky Derby presented by Woodford Reserve where he finished third beaten by two noses. He has also won six of seven to date, most recently the Japan Dirt Classic Stakes. Next, arguably the best horse in North America on dirt at marathon distances ranging from 1 3/8 miles to 1 ¾ miles, earned his seventh straight win last month in the Grade 3 Greenwood Cup Stakes. Highland Falls enters the Classic off a win at the 1 1/4-mile distance in the Grade 1 Jockey Club Gold Cup Stakes. Similarly, Mixto won the Grade 1 FanDuel Racing Pacific Classic Stakes at the distance and at Del Mar when last seen at the end of August. Fierceness, who was favored in the Kentucky Derby this year but finished 15th, has returned to win both races he’s run in since then, most recently the Grade 1 Draftkings Travers Stakes at the distance of the Classic. Tapit Trice won the Grade 2 Woodward Stakes in his most recent race and is another who fits at this level. Ushba Tesoro finished fifth in the 2023 Longines Breeders’ Cup Classic then won the Group 1 Tokyo Daishoten Stakes last December, before three second-place finishes this year, two in group 1 stakes. Newgate won the Grade 1 Santa Anita Handicap Presented by Yaamava’ Resort & Casino at this mile and one-quarter distance in March and most recently was beaten a head and a nose in the Grade 1 California Crown Stakes presented by SirDavis American Whisky. Arthur’s Ride won the Grade 1 Whitney Stakes in August before finishing fifth behind Highland Falls in the Jockey Club Gold Cup, in which Pyrenees was second, the same position he finished in the Grade 1 Stephen Foster Stakes in June. Sierra Leone was involved with Forever Young in the Derby stretch battle. Subsequently, he finished second or third in three races, most recently behind Fierceness in the Travers. Senor Buscador won the $20 million Group 1 Saudi Cup Stakes in February but has finished third, fourth and fifth since then. Derma Sotogake finished second in the 2023 Classic but finished no better than fifth in three races this year. The lone also eligible in the field is Rattle N Roll, who is winless in four races since winning the Blame Stakes in June 2023.
Analysis and main win contenders:
Winning at the 1 ¼-mile distance of the Breeders’ Cup Classic and similar races takes a combination of speed and stamina, and Next has that and more. A lot will be said about the fact that he has done his best at longer distances, ranging from 1 3/8 miles to 1 ¾ miles, but earlier in his career Next won three times at distances from one mile to one mile and one-eighth. After joining the barn of William “Doug” Cowans in the spring of 2022, Next won a turf race at 1 1/8 miles then two races later was entered in a 1 ½-mile turf race which was moved to dirt. The rest is history as Next won the first of seven straight races all at those longer distances mentioned above. He led from start to finish in three of them but in four others he raced patiently in second until the final turn, when Next put in a burst of speed to be in front with an eighth of a mile to run. Averaging a seven-length margin over his nearest rival at the eighth pole in each of those last seven wins, Next remained unchallenged to the wire. Using the GPS data contained in Equibase charts and available to racing fans everywhere, when winning the Greenwood Cup on September 21, Next never slowed down over the last five eights of a mile, consistently running 37 to 38 miles per hour. Next did this while never shortening his stride, as indicated by an average stride length of 23.5 to 24 feet and a stride frequency of 2.3 strides per second over more than a half mile. Next has also earned very consistent Equibase Speed Figures of 109 and 110 in his last four races, demonstrating his 2024 campaign has been executed perfectly. There may be horses with more early speed than Next in this year’s Breeders’ Cup Classic Field, but I don’t think there is any horse as consistently fast, and as mentally tough, as Next and that could be the key to earning his eighth straight win and the biggest win of his career in this year’s Classic.
City of Troy only needs to run as well on dirt, which he’s racing on for the first time, as he has on turf, to win the Breeders’ Cup Classic. A Kentucky-bred son of undefeated champion Justify, City of Troy certainly has the pedigree for 1 ¼ miles on dirt, and he’s won at the distance (or close to it) twice. When victorious in the Epsom Derby in June, City of Troy put in a very strong rally with three-eighths of a mile to run then drew off convincingly in a field of 16, earning a 123 figure. He then bettered that to 124 when winning the Coral Eclipse Stakes in July at the distance of the Classic, this time rallying from about three lengths back with three furlongs to run. Showing a new dimension in the Juddmonte International Stakes in August, City of Troy went to the lead in a field of 13 and held it all the way, improving to a career-best 129 figure. With such versatility and a tremendous pedigree for dirt, City of Troy has every right to run another “A” race good enough to win.
I had been toying with a number of superb equine athletes for my third win contender, and it was a surprise even to me that it became Tapit Trice after I looked at a number of factors. Now six-for-12 in his career, Tapit Trice was considered a top contender for the 2023 Kentucky Derby presented by Woodford Reserve after a neck win in the Toyota Blue Grass Stakes. He finished seventh in that race and was no better than third in three races following the Derby in 2023. Rested 11 months, perhaps with top trainer Todd Pletcher pointing to this year’s Classic all along, Tapit Trice won the Monmouth Cup Stakes with a 106 figure which was pretty strong considering the lengthy layoff. Regressing to finish fourth in the Jockey Club Gold Cup behind Highland Falls and Pyrenees, Tapit Trice got back on track in a big way with a victory in the Woodward Stakes at the end of September, earning a career best 110 figure in the process. Although the Woodward was run at 1 1/8 miles and although Tapit Trice has finished no better than third in three tries at 1 1/4 miles, that’s not enough to draw a conclusion that he can’t run as well at this distance as he has at 1 1/8 miles. Additionally, as a son of Tapit, sire of 2022 Classic winner Flightline, I think this distance will suit Tapit Trice just fine. Last, but not least, the GPS data on Tapit Trice is very similar to Next, as the colt’s velocity through the last three-eighths of a mile in the Woodward was consistent at 36 to 36.5 miles per hour, his stride length did not shorten as it averaged 25.5 over that same distance, and his stride frequency remained constant at 2.1 per second. What this seems to suggest is, as others tire in the final quarter mile, Tapit Trice will be running the same speed and can pass those tiring pacesetters and pressers, possibly posting the upset win or at least running much better than his high odds suggest he will.
Other contenders, with their best Equibase Speed Figures: Ushba Tesoro (127), Newgate (122), Fierceness (110) and Forever Young (110). Ushba Tesoro closed from 12th to fifth in last year’s Classic but is a year older and more mature. Although second in his last three races, Ushba Tesoro won the Tokyo Daishoten just prior to that with a 123 figure and earned a 127 figure when second in the Dubai World Cup in March at this distance. Newgate finished ninth in the World Cup then after six months off ran absolutely the best race of his career when beaten a head and a nose in the California Crown Stakes on September 28, earning a 122 figure. Fierceness has won two stakes races in a row versus three year olds, earning a 108 figure in the Jim Dandy Stakes presented by Mohegan Sun and then a 110 figure in the Travers (at the distance of the Classic), in which he beat the amazing filly Thorpedo Anna by a head. Forever Young missed in a three horse photo in this year’s Derby or otherwise might be undefeated in seven races. He has been pointing to this race since then and just beat 14 horses in the Japan Dirt Classic at this distance so he enters the race in top form, having earned back-to-back 110 figures in the Kentucky Derby and the U.A.E. Derby just prior to that.
The rest of the Classic field, with their best Equibase Speed Figures, is Arthur’s Ride (115), Derma Sotogake (117), Highland Falls (113), Mixto (108), Pyrenees (108), Rattle N Roll (115), Senor Buscador (114) and Sierra Leone (110).
Top contenders in preference order:
Next
City of Troy
Tapit Trice
Other horses of note:
Ushba Tesoro
Newgate
Fierceness
Forever Young
Pick 3
2-11-11
2-11-11
$21
Pick 4
4-2/3/8/9-11-11
4-2/3/8/9-11-11
$1,544
Pick 5
8-4-2/3/8/9-11-11
8-4-2/3/8/9-11-11
$59,285
Daily Double
11-11
11-11
$27
Daily Double
JUV-CLSC(6-11)
JUV-CLSC(6-11)
$123
Daily Double
DSTF-CLSC(2-11)
DSTF-CLSC(2-11)
$11
Superfecta
11-9-1-13
11-9-1-13
$203
Super High Five
11-9-1-13-5
11-9-1-13-5
$18,183
Trifecta
11-9-1
11-9-1
$66
Consolation Double
JUV-CLSC(6-15)
JUV-CLSC(6-15)
$10
Pick 3
2-11-11
2-11-11
$21
Pick 4
4-2/3/8/9-11-11
4-2/3/8/9-11-11
$1,544
Pick 5
8-4-2/3/8/9-11-11
8-4-2/3/8/9-11-11
$59,285
Daily Double
11-11
11-11
$27
Daily Double
JUV-CLSC(6-11)
JUV-CLSC(6-11)
$123
Daily Double
DSTF-CLSC(2-11)
DSTF-CLSC(2-11)
$11
Superfecta
11-9-1-13
11-9-1-13
$203
Super High Five
11-9-1-13-5
11-9-1-13-5
$18,183
Trifecta
11-9-1
11-9-1
$66
Consolation Double
JUV-CLSC(6-15)
JUV-CLSC(6-15)
$10
