Friday’s $300,000, Grade 2 Mrs. Revere Stakes at Churchill Downs is a flat-out fantastic betting race featuring 11 3-year-old fillies competing at 1 1/16 miles over a much-maligned turf course. After spending around $10 million to install a new turf course for the spring 2022 meet, Churchill officials halted turf racing in June after growing complaints about the course’s poor quality and safety issues. Nearly five months later – aside from brief usage in August – and after a lot of TLC, turf racing was brought back for Churchill’s November meet on a limited basis, and reviews so far have been much better.
Let’s hope a forecast for modest rainfall Friday morning in Louisville doesn’t wash the Mrs. Revere off of the lawn and we can get this field to the gate, because the opportunity to make some much-needed money for holiday shopping certainly exists when handicapping this well-matched group.
California Angel (#6) figures to vie for post-time favoritism in the Mrs. Revere and she has a class advantage over the other 10 starters — in fact, she’s one of only two U.S. graded stakes winners in the field along with Bubble Rock (#4). That victory came eight starts ago last fall when California Angel rallied late to win the Grade 2 JPMorgan Chase Jessamine Stakes at Keeneland and punch her ticket to the 2021 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf, where she finished 11th of 14 but only four lengths behind winner Pizza Bianca. In her four starts on turf as a 3-year-old this year, California Angel has finished second twice, third, and fourth for trainer George Leonard, all in stakes races. She enters off of a late-closing runner-up effort in the Grade 3 Rubicon Valley View Stakes Oct. 28 at Keeneland, which was won in impressive fashion by Sparkle Blue.
California Angel certainly figures as a legit win candidate in the Mrs. Revere with current leading Churchill rider Tyler Gaffalione getting aboard for the first time, but I think she may be overbet come post time and I also don’t see a ton of early speed lined up in this race. She will be flying late but I’ll use her in exacta and trifecta bets with another filly who may be putting it all together at just the right time for her graded stakes debut.
That filly is Lovely Princess (#7), one of three entered in the Mrs. Revere for trainer Ken McPeek. This daughter of Twirling Candy made three of her five career starts on turf heading into the fall Keeneland meet, winning a 1 1/16-mile maiden race at Ellis Park back in August and also finishing fast after being boxed in to check in fourth by 1 ¼ lengths in a tough 1 5/16-mile Kentucky Downs allowance race. She tried the first-level allowance condition again at Keeneland on Oct. 27 and closed strongly from a stalking spot to win by a length going 1 1/8 miles on turf rated good. The filly she defeated at Keeneland, Shug McGaughey-trained Personal Best, was favored at 1.34-1 and subsequently came back to romp by 4 ¾ lengths last week on Aqueduct’s turf course.
It’s notable that McPeek’s main jockey, Brian Hernandez Jr., retains the mount on Lovely Princess over the trainer’s other entries in the Mrs. Revere, Lady Puchi (#3) and Sweet Lady Ivanka (#5), two runners he also rode in their most recent starts. Lovely Princess is a stalker/closer type, but I anticipate Hernandez keeping her more in touch with the early leaders than in her prior start and in good position to get first run on the field at the top of the stretch. If she can take another jump forward in ability Friday, her experience going longer should help her close the deal in the late going. And if it does rain some and that softens up this still-mysterious turf course a bit by post time, all the better.
I’ll make a win bet on Lovely Princess and use her and California Angel in exacta and trifecta tickets with the aforementioned Lady Puchi, probable pacesetter Bubble Rock – who has an upset chance if jockey Joel Rosario can harness her speed on the lead – and three other contenders drawn outside. Have A Good Day (#9) won a Group 3 stakes sprinting in France and almost won a Group 2, both in 2021, but will be stretching out to two turns for the first time. Quality Star (#10) is a filly I’ve had in my Equibase Virtual Stable for a while, and the Paulo Lobo trainee finally got over the hump with a four-length maiden win last month at Keeneland. And Joyful Applause (#11) nearly scored on this turf course three weeks ago at 1 1/16 miles and should be forwardly placed if she manages to start well and angle in to save ground before reaching the first turn.
Betting strategy on a $10 budget:
$8 to win on 7 Lovely Princess
$1 exacta box 6 California Angel and 7 Lovely Princess
What to say at the betting window: Churchill Downs, Race 9, $10 win on number 7, second bet is $1 exacta box 6 and 7
Betting strategy on a $20 budget:
$8 win on 7 Lovely Princess
$1 exacta, 6,7 with 3,4,6,7,9,10,11 ($12)
What to say at the betting window: Churchill Downs, Race 9, $8 win on number 7, second bet is $1 exacta, 6 and 7 with 3,4,6,7,9,10,11
Betting strategy on a $30 budget:
$8 win on 7 Lovely Princess
$1 exacta, 6,7 with 3,4,6,7,9,10,11 ($12)
$.50 cent trifecta wheel 6,7 with 6,7 with 3,4,9,10,11 ($5)
$.50 cent trifecta wheel 6,7 with 3,4,9,10,11 with 6,7 ($5)
What to say at the betting window: Churchill Downs, Race 9, first bet is $8 win on number 7, second bet is $1 exacta, 6 and 7 with 3,4,6,7,9,10,11, third bet is $.50-cent trifecta wheel 6 and 7 with 6 and 7 with 3,4,9,10,11, fourth bet is $.50-cent trifecta wheel 6 and 7 with 3,4,9,10,11 with 6 and 7
Good luck, enjoy the race, and Happy Thanksgiving!
Pick 4
4-8-1/2/8/9-4/9
4-8-1/2/8/9-4/9
$54
Pick 5
4-4-8-1/2/8/9-4/9
4-4-8-1/2/8/9-4/9
$325
Superfecta
4-11-1-7
4-11-1-7
$1,203
Trifecta
4-11-1
4-11-1
$914
Pick 4
4-8-1/2/8/9-4/9
4-8-1/2/8/9-4/9
$54
Pick 5
4-4-8-1/2/8/9-4/9
4-4-8-1/2/8/9-4/9
$325
Superfecta
4-11-1-7
4-11-1-7
$1,203
Trifecta
4-11-1
4-11-1
$914
